A World in Turmoil: What Global Conflict Trends Tell Us

At a moment when armed conflict is affecting 1.3 billion people globally, about 16.5% of the world population, historical data on conflicts provides critical insights for countering the trend towards violence. This overview highlights key global conflict trends from 1946 to 2024, drawing on PRIO’s Annual Global Conflict report and data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), and recommends what they mean for policymakers, peace practitioners and conflict monitors moving forward.

Long-term data is indispensable for conflict prevention and response. Without long-term data we would not know how conflict dynamics are changing around us. With it, we can more readily adapt our interventions to today’s interlinked challenges.

Going back to 1946, the UCDP global conflict data not only illuminates patterns in where and how wars occur but also how conflict dynamics evolve across decades. By mapping global trends, researchers and practitioners can identify early warning signs — for instance, the spread of multi-actor conflicts within a single country — and direct preventive action before crises escalate. Historical data helps us discern the broader forces driving violence, from altered structural factors to the rise of transnational armed groups like ISIS.

Rising Impact of Conflict-Related Deaths

The year 2024 marked another sobering chapter in the global story of armed violence. While the number of people killed directly in battle-related events remained roughly the same as the year before — around 129,000 deaths in so-called state-based conflicts — it was still the fourth most violent year since 1989. For practitioners, policymakers, and peacebuilders, these numbers underline a troubling reality: the world remains locked in multiple, overlapping cycles of organized violence, and we have seen an uptick in violent conflict deaths in recent years (Figure 1). The preliminary data for 2025 indicates that direct conflict deaths have continued to increase.

The war between Russia and Ukraine, the bombardment of Gaza, and the civil war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region are the three major conflicts which accounted for most of the surge in deaths in recent years. Together, they illustrate not only the enduring human toll of modern warfare but also the complex global environment in which today’s peacebuilding efforts operate.

Growth in Complexity and Prevalence of State-Based Conflicts

In 2024, 61 state-based conflicts took place in 36 different countries — the highest number recorded since 1946 (Figure 2). Although the death toll stabilized compared to 2023, the persistence of high-intensity warfare shows how entrenched contemporary conflicts have become. Two wars dominated: the Russian invasion of Ukraine (causing about 76,000 battle deaths) and the Israel–Hamas war in Gaza (an estimated 26,000 deaths). Behind these headline figures, numerous severe but less visible conflicts persisted, such as the war in Sudan, where over 5,000 were killed in 2024 amid the continent’s largest humanitarian crisis.

Rising Number of Conflicts per Country

Another alarming trend is the growing number of conflicts per country. In 2024, over half of all conflict-affected states faced more than one armed conflict, and nine hosted three or more. This pattern suggests not just a rise in violence, but increasing complexity. Peacebuilding strategies now need to engage with overlapping political, ethnic, and territorial disputes within the same state, requiring more localized and adaptive approaches.

The Return of Interstate War

Although civil wars still dominate, wars between countries re-emerged in 2024 after decades of decline. Four interstate wars were recorded — Russia–Ukraine, Iran–Israel, UK/US–Yemen, and Pakistan–Afghanistan — the highest number since the late 1980s. This renewed interstate confrontation points to shifting geopolitical tensions and the breakdown of long-standing deterrence norms.

The escalation of violence in Kashmir between India and Pakistan in early 2025, and US military attacks on Iran and Venezuela suggests this dangerous trend continues. For policymakers, this underscores the need to reinvigorate multilateral diplomacy alongside traditional peacebuilding efforts focused on civil war settings.

The Internationalization of Civil War

Another defining pattern is the internationalization of civil conflicts, with outside powers intervening militarily in internal wars. In 2024, 19 of 61 state-based conflicts involved such foreign participation. Although this represents a slight decline from previous years, internationalized conflicts still accounted for the majority of deaths.

Foreign involvement — whether direct combat or proxy support — tends to prolong conflicts and magnify their human cost, making resolution more elusive. For peace practitioners, this complexity demands better coordination among diplomacy, humanitarian action, and development assistance to manage intertwined regional crises.

Non-State Conflicts: Persistent but Uneven

In 2024, 74 non-state conflicts were recorded, down slightly from 80 in 2023. These are violent clashes between armed groups not linked to governments. Although many are low in intensity, non-state conflicts collectively caused around 17,500 deaths — a figure that, while declining since 2020, remains far higher than before 2013.

Unlike traditional political conflicts, these forms of violence blur the lines between crime and war. This shift challenges policymakers to address urban insecurity and organized crime not only as law enforcement issues but as essential components of peacebuilding and conflict prevention.

One-Sided Violence: Continued Harm to Civilians

In 2024, one-sided violence — deliberate attacks on civilians by state or non-state actors — resulted in roughly 14,000 deaths, up from 10,700 the previous year. Non-state actors were responsible for most of these deaths (around 10,300), while state actors accounted for 3,400. The widening gap reflects a trend of armed groups deliberately targeting civilians to assert power or fuel fear, even as 14 governments were also recorded as perpetrators.

The persistence of one-sided violence underscores the centrality of civilian protection and accountability within peace operations, humanitarian programming, and security policy. Robust monitoring, data transparency, and justice mechanisms remain critical to mitigating these harms.

Regional Variations: Africa and Asia at the Center

Over the long period from 1946 to 2024, Africa and Asia have hosted the majority of conflicts. In 2024, Africa recorded 28 state-based conflicts, nearly double the number from 2013, concentrated in the Sahel, the Horn, and the Great Lakes region.

Asia followed with 17 conflicts, primarily in Myanmar, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Philippines. The Middle East recorded 10 conflicts, Europe 3, and the Americas 2, the latter including Haiti’s first state-based conflict since 2004. This regional picture demonstrates how conflict is simultaneously localized and transnational — spilling across borders, drawing in outside actors, and combining state fragility with global power politics.

Conflict Exposure

While measuring how many people are killed in direct conflict battles gives us an indicator of the severity of the conflict, this measure doesn’t always appropriately reflect the full scale of the devastating human consequences of conflict. However, detailed UCDP data on conflict locations provides exact information about where conflicts are fought. This allows us to estimate the number of people exposed to conflict, defined as living within 50 km distance of a deadly conflict event. Our estimates show that the number of people affected by war has grown steadily since the 1990s (see Figure 3). In 2024, a record 1.35 billion people, a staggering 16.6% of the world population, were living in conflict-affected areas. Of these, 520 million were children, totaling 1 in every 5 children in the world.

The PRIO data has been informing Save the Children’s annual report “Stop the War on Children”, and the UN General Secretary’s Women, Peace and Security Report 2025.

What the Data Tells Us About Conflict Prevention

Reliable conflict data is not simply an academic tool — it is foundational for prevention, policy, and peacebuilding practice. The UCDP dataset highlights both persistent structural patterns and emerging risks, offering essential guidance for how resources and interventions can be better allocated. Three overarching lessons stand out from the 1946–2024 record:

1. Conflicts are becoming more concentrated and complex – Violence increasingly clusters within a limited number of states, many facing multiple simultaneous conflicts. Effective prevention must therefore combine national reforms with localized peace initiatives that recognize this layered complexity.
2. Interstate tensions are re-emerging – After decades of focus on civil wars, the return of major-power confrontation demands renewed diplomatic engagement and crisis management. Conflict monitoring and early warning systems must integrate geostrategic and humanitarian indicators alike to anticipate escalation.
3. Civilian protection remains paramount – Rising levels of one-sided violence highlight that protecting civilians is central to prevention. Efforts to halt armed conflict cannot be separated from those that defend human rights, strengthen accountability, and mitigate harm to populations under threat.

Together, these insights reinforce that conflict prevention is not a one-time intervention but a continuous process built on strong evidence, patient diplomacy, and sustained collaboration across governments, civil society, and international organizations.

High-Quality Data for a More Peaceful Future

The long-term record of global conflict — from the aftermath of World War II to today’s fragmented wars — reveals a world that has not grown uniformly more violent, but one where violence is more complex, concentrated, and connected.

The data-driven insights generated by UCDP and similar initiatives make it possible to see these shifts clearly, but their true value lies in action. Translating data into policy — into earlier warnings, smarter diplomacy, and targeted support for peacebuilding — remains the next great challenge.

As conflicts evolve in form and geography, investing in open, high-quality data collection, analysis and dissemination will be vital. Shared data allows practitioners and policymakers to align strategies, anticipate risks, and learn from each other’s experiences. Ultimately, conflict prevention depends not only on political resolve but also on understanding — a clear, evidence-based grasp of where and why violence occurs. The decades of data behind this global overview remind us that, while violence persists, it can be foreseen, analyzed, and, with commitment and foresight, prevented.